A necessary outcome

From a European liberal point of view, the biggest disappointment of the Bush victory yesterday was having to pass up on the schadenfreude of watching the Republicans lose. That was quite a blow, but its effects were not long-lasting, for what is left is the reflection that it is better for the longer term cause of liberalism that the neo-conservatives should reap in their second term the whirlwind of their own policy failings during the first.

This is no mere post-rationalisation of a bad result. I pointed out some time ago (and I was not alone) that for Kerry to make it to the White House he would have to project himself as - at best - George W lite. Kerry was never the great liberal hope that some liked to imagine, but a Kerry presidency shackled by a Republican Congress and the sort of problems that the present administration would have bequeathed him was certain to be a profound disappointment to anybody interested in political reform.

Political movements need time if they are to destroy themselves effectively. It took eighteen years of Thatcherite and post-Thatcherite Conservative government to bring the British Tory party to its knees. In the U.S. the neo-cons have moved a lot quicker that Thatcher dared and consequently their trajectory may be even shorter. The war in Iraq is not helping them but the problem that will really bite is the failure of an economic recovery build on loose credit.

The problem with the twin U.S. deficits is not their size so much as the way in which the Bush administration has become dependent on them. The recovery is fuelled by consumer credit that sucks imports into the country and the budget deficit is inevitably increased by the extravagant costs of both a militarised foreign policy and politically motivated tax breaks. The good news for Kerry is that he doesn't have to try and solve this knotty problem. So Democrat hands will be clean when the brown stuff starts flying off the whirring blades.